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Although chemical defenses and herbivore pressure are widely established as key targets and agents of selection, their roles in local adaptation and determining potential evolutionary responses to changing climates are often neglected. Here, we explore fitness differences between 11 rangewide M. guttatus populations in a field common garden experiment and assess the agents and targets of selection driving relative fitness patterns. We use piecewise structural equation models to disentangle associations between chemical defenses, (phenylpropanoid glycosides; PPGs), and life history traits with herbivory and fitness. While the historical environment of populations is not predictive of fitness differences between populations, >90% of variation in fitness can be predicted by the flowering time and foliar PPG defense arsenal of a population. Piecewise structural equation models indicate that life history traits, particularly earlier flowering time, are strongly and directly linked to fitness. However, herbivory, particularly fruit predation, is also an important agent of selection that creates indirect links between fitness and both chemical defenses and life history traits. Our results emphasize the multivariate nature of the agents and targets of selections in producing adaptation and suggest that future responses to selection must navigate a complex fitness landscape. 

Abstract Although chemical defenses and herbivore pressure are widely established as key targets and agents of selection, their roles in local adaptation and determining potential evolutionary responses to changing climates are often neglected. Here, we explore fitness differences between 11 rangewide M. guttatus populations in a field common garden experiment and assess the agents and targets of selection driving relative fitness patterns. We use piecewise structural equation models to disentangle associations between chemical defenses, (phenylpropanoid glycosides; PPGs), and life history traits with herbivory and fitness. While the historical environment of populations is not predictive of fitness differences between populations, >90% of variation in fitness can be predicted by the flowering time and foliar PPG defense arsenal of a population. Piecewise structural equation models indicate that life history traits, particularly earlier flowering time, are strongly and directly linked to fitness. However, herbivory, particularly fruit predation, is also an important agent of selection that creates indirect links between fitness and both chemical defenses and life history traits. Our results emphasize the multivariate nature of the agents and targets of selections in producing adaptation and suggest that future responses to selection must navigate a complex fitness landscape. 

Abstract Biodiversity promotes ecosystem function (EF) in experiments, but it remains uncertain how biodiversity loss affects function in larger‐scale natural ecosystems. In these natural ecosystems, rare and declining species are more likely to be lost, and function needs to be maintained across space and time. Here, we explore the importance of rare and declining bee species to the pollination of three wildflowers and three crops using large‐scale (72 sites across 5000 km²), multi‐year datasets. Half of the sampled bee species (82/164) were rare or declining, but these species provided only ~15% of overall pollination. To determine the number of species important to EF, we used two methods of “scaling up,” both of which have previously been used for biodiversity‐function analysis. First, we summed bee species' contributions to pollination across space and time and then found the minimum set of species needed to provide a threshold level of function across all sites; according to this method, effectively no rare and declining bee species were important to pollination. Second, we account for the “insurance value” of biodiversity by finding the minimum set of bee species needed to simultaneously provide a threshold level of function at each site in each year. The second method leads to the conclusion that 25 rare and eight declining bee species (36% and 53% of all rare and declining bee species, respectively) are included in the minimum set. Our findings provide some of the strongest evidence yet that rare and declining species are key to meeting threshold levels of EF, thereby providing a more direct link between real‐world biodiversity loss and EF. 

Abstract Doliolids are common gelatinous grazers in marine ecosystems around the world and likely influence carbon cycling due to their large population sizes with high growth and excretion rates. Aggregations or blooms of these organisms occur frequently, but they are difficult to measure or predict because doliolids are fragile, under sampled with conventional plankton nets, and can aggregate on fine spatial scales (1–10 m). Moreover, ecological studies typically target a single region or site that does not encompass the range of possible habitats favoring doliolid proliferation. To address these limitations, we combined in situ imaging data from six coastal ecosystems, including the Oregon shelf, northern California, southern California Bight, northern Gulf of Mexico, Straits of Florida, and Mediterranean Sea, to resolve and compare doliolid habitat associations during warm months when environmental gradients are strong and doliolid blooms are frequently documented. Higher ocean temperature was the strongest predictor of elevated doliolid abundances across ecosystems, with additional variance explained by chlorophyll a fluorescence and dissolved oxygen. For marginal seas with a wide range of productivity regimes, the nurse stage tended to comprise a higher proportion of the doliolids when total abundance was low. However, this pattern did not hold in ecosystems with persistent coastal upwelling. The doliolids tended to be most aggregated in oligotrophic systems (Mediterranea and southern California), suggesting that microhabitats within the water column favor proliferation on fine spatial scales. Similar comparative approaches can resolve the realized niche of fast‐reproducing marine animals, thus improving predictions for population‐level responses to changing oceanographic conditions.